PATH shares dipped 3.6% Thursday as the lockup period for its recent IPO expired.
Dines explained that UiPath’s software emulates human actions and can perform a wide range of tasks. Customers use the platform for everything from finance to back office functions.
Dines added that when evaluating the business, annual recurring revenue, or ARR, is a great measure for how things are going. While growth is a primary driver for the company, it carefully invests to provide stable results.
Let’s check on the charts and technical indicators.
In the daily Japanese candlestick chart of PATH, below, we can see that a number of upper shadows in late May told us that the shares were vulnerable to a decline. Prices declined into September and traded below the bearish 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Trading volume surged higher in recent sessions as prices gapped lower. Heavy volume at a possible low can mean a change of ownership from weak hands to potentially strong hands. I would consider sellers at the end of a lockup period to be weak hands or anxious hands. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a steady decline since the IPO telling us that sellers of PATH have been more aggressive.
The 12-day price momentum study shows a pattern of higher lows from June and that is a bullish divergence when compared to prices making lower lows. The pace of the decline has slowed but it has not resulted in a rebound. At least not yet.
In the daily Point and Figure chart of PATH, below, we can see that the shares have reached a downside price target in the $57 area. This does not mean that prices are done declining but it can mean that technically oriented traders may be covering shorts or nibbling at the long side.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of PATH, below, we can see a potential downside price target in the $45 area.
Bottom-line strategy: PATH has made a low but that is not the same as a bottom. A bottom is a process. The fundamental story of PATH sounds interesting so I would put PATH on your “market minder” to track how it is going and for potential purchase in the weeks ahead. Defer purchases for now.